Lithium prices surge to 200,000 yuan per ton—perhaps the era of low-price advantages is gone for good...

Following the return of the main lithium carbonate contract LC2609 to the 200,000 yuan per ton mark on May 8th, on May 11th, the main lithium carbonate contract LC2609 of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 205,020 yuan per ton. Today, during the trading session, the lithium carbonate futures continued to maintain a growth momentum of over 200,000 yuan per ton. On the same day, the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate of SMM was 20,390 yuan per ton, having risen by more than 60% compared to the beginning of the year.

From 60,000 to 120,000 in the beginning of 2025, and then to 200,000 in the middle of 2026, the lithium carbonate price has shown two consecutive "V" curves. This indicates that the underlying logic of this round of price increase is completely different from the panic hoarding and emotional speculation in 2022, which caused the price to soar to 600,000 yuan per ton. This time, it is not hoarding, but the necessity of inventory.

Why is this the case? In fact, it's the supply contraction and the much higher-than-expected growth rate of demand!

In simple terms, it might just be that it was not anticipated.

The first unexpected development is the centralized re-licensing of domestic mines. In July 2025, the new "Mineral Resources Law" will classify lithium as an independent mineral type. A large number of lithium mica mines that previously held licenses under names such as "ceramic soil" will need to reapply for licenses. The four main mines in the core production area of Jiangxi Yichun have been in a centralized shutdown and re-licensing cycle since May 1, 2026. Seven others are still in the process. It is unknown exactly how long it will take to complete the re-licensing. The production recovery schedule is also unclear. Jiangxi lithium mica is one of the most important sources of incremental lithium carbonate in China. This shutdown directly deprived the short-term supply of elasticity.

The second unexpected development was the tightening of Zimbabwe's export policy. In February 2026, Zimbabwe announced the suspension of all lithium concentrate exports. The Zimbabwe Ministry of Mines and Mineral Development announced that it would immediately suspend all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, including those already in transit. The ban was originally scheduled to be implemented in 2027, but was executed earlier, aiming to promote local processing of mineral resources, combat illegal exports, and strengthen industry supervision. Of course, although the subsequent ban has been lifted, the shipment still requires time. Although it has somewhat alleviated the supply shortage situation, it still has an impact on the global balance of lithium ore supply and demand, and the fluctuation of lithium carbonate prices is not unrelated to this.

The third unexpected development was the proactive reduction in global production capacity. Australian miner IGO lowered its guidance for the annual output of Australia's largest hard rock lithium mine, Greenbushes, from the original range of 150-165 million tons to 138-143 million tons. The reduction was as high as 13%.

Under the triple disruptions on the supply side, coupled with the fact that the order and shipment volume of energy storage products in the first four months of this year exceeded expectations significantly, the entire industry was consuming "inventory", operating at full capacity and production schedules. At one point, there was a situation where a single chip was in short supply.

The price increase spreads through all stages of the production chain. Some benefit, while others suffer!

Upstream: Enjoying excessive profits. Take Tianqi Lithium as an example. In the first quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 5.128 billion yuan, an increase of 98.44% year-on-year; its net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.876 billion yuan, an increase of 1,699.12% year-on-year; and its non-GAAP net profit was 1.816 billion yuan, soaring by 3,987.18% year-on-year!

What does it mean? That is to say, the net profit of Tianqi Lithium for one quarter in 2026 was more than four times that of 2025!

Downstream: Silent... 。 Energy storage integrators are confronted with an almost unsolvable cost equation. Upstream mining enterprises and battery cell manufacturers can pass on the cost pressure to the upstream and downstream through long-term contracts for price locking and futures hedging. However, in the "bid-winning price locking" model, energy storage integrators can only rely on so-called "dynamic" negotiated quotations and are almost unable to effectively pass on the cost pressure to the client. In the supply chain, either the price is lowered or everyone has to bear it together. Small and medium-sized enterprises with less influence and those unable to withstand it can only break the contract, clear out and leave. The remaining enterprises either band together to support each other or deeply optimize the supply chain to ensure survival. The profits in the middle环节 are doubly squeezed. The industry is entering a new cost cycle， and the era of low-price benefits may be gone forever.

It is worth noting that UBS has raised the target price for lithium carbonate to 280,000 yuan per ton in 2027, an increase of 47% compared to the previous forecast. If this expectation comes true, the cost pressure in the energy storage industry will evolve from "painful" to "systemic challenge".

Perhaps, in the next two years, the lithium price will not return to its 2025 low point. However, the high-quality development of the industry can only be achieved through a series of successive reshuffles.