Lithium carbonate price plunges to 100,000 yuan per ton, and lithium battery materials undergo accelerated fluctuations and adjustments.

Over the past nearly one year, the prices of lithium battery materials have experienced a fluctuating "roller coaster" pattern. Core materials such as lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and electrolytes have seen varying degrees of increase from the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026. Especially, the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate have risen rapidly. However, after entering the third quarter of 2026, the prices generally declined, and the overall market entered a fluctuating downward adjustment phase.

At this critical juncture of the industry's price adjustment, in September this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry", clearly proposing to develop high-voltage, high-stability, and large-capacity cathode materials, high-capacity, low-expansion silicon-carbon negative electrode materials, high-stability, high-ion-conductivity solid electrolytes, and composite current collectors, etc., as key materials for the transformation and development of the battery materials industry during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.

01

The lithium battery materials market is experiencing fluctuations and adjustments.

As the core material of the entire lithium battery industry chain, the price of lithium carbonate has been closely affecting the nerves of upstream and downstream enterprises. Industry data shows that in late October, the lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly, falling by nearly 20% within a week and reaching the year's low of 90,800 yuan/ton, breaking through the 100,000 yuan/ton threshold. Compared with the high point of 20.900 yuan/ton in May this year, the price drop of lithium carbonate was even more than 50%.

"The significant changes in the price of lithium carbonate are mainly influenced by changes in the market supply and demand pattern, as well as changes in expectations of industrial enterprises, research institutions, etc." Industry analysts pointed out that although there are differences in predictions from different institutions, overall, the lithium carbonate market will present a supply shortage situation in 2026, and the growth rate of the supply side in 2027 will match that of the demand side, the supply shortage situation will be somewhat alleviated, and the lithium carbonate market may even turn to a supply surplus situation in 2028.

The demand from the downstream market remains at a relatively fast growth rate. Industry institutions predict that in 2026, the total global demand for lithium batteries will reach 3065 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of over 30%. Zijin Tianfeng Futures predicts that in 2026, the global lithium balance will maintain a dual increase in supply and demand, with the global supply of lithium carbonate increasing by 27% to 2.19 million tons in 2026 and the demand increasing by 34% to 2.16 million tons.

CITIC Securities predicts that in 2027, the global lithium carbonate market supply and demand will turn to a surplus of 38,000 tons. Goldman Sachs predicts that the global lithium carbonate market will shift from a supply shortage in 2026 to a significant surplus in 2028. The institution believes that in the fourth quarter of 2026, lithium carbonate is expected to approach a balance between supply and demand, and the supply surplus pressure will become prominent from 2027 to 2028. It is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate in 2027 will fluctuate around 100,000 yuan/ton, and it will continue to decline to approximately 84,000 yuan/ton in 2028.

Other lithium battery material markets and supply-demand conditions and prices are also adjusting. In late October, the spot price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was reported to be about 10.800 yuan/ton, showing a moderate decline compared to the beginning of October. In the first half of 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium in the market was 11.800 yuan/ton, with the highest reaching 16.500 yuan/ton in the year, hitting bottom at 9.600 yuan/ton in April and rebounding, remaining in the range of 10,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton until now.

Lithium iron phosphate also followed the trend and entered a downward channel. In late October, the mainstream market price of lithium iron phosphate (for power use) was about 4.500 yuan/ton, showing a sliding downward trend, but it still increased by approximately 50% compared to the low point of 3.000 yuan/ton in June 2025. Industry institutions predict that the price center of lithium iron phosphate in the second half of this year will still remain at a relatively high level, and high-end products will enjoy more market premiums.

02

New technologies are accelerating the iteration of materials

Currently, the lithium battery material market is at a critical juncture of development and transformation. It is leaving behind the previous stage of "competing on production capacity and seizing market share", and is fully shifting to a high-quality iterative cycle centered on technological innovation.

As the most mainstream lithium battery cathode material in the current market, lithium iron phosphate is accelerating its iteration towards higher density and compactness. High-density lithium iron phosphate has achieved multiple breakthroughs in energy density, cycle life, and fast charging performance through technologies such as particle grading optimization and surface coating modification. According to industry estimates, compared with the third generation, the fourth generation of high-density lithium iron phosphate can increase the energy density of the battery cell by 15%-20%, reaching 200-210 Wh/kg, while maintaining the inherent thermal stability advantage of lithium iron phosphate.

With the growth in demand for high-end products in the market, the supply of high-density lithium iron phosphate will continue to be in short supply. Industry statistics show that the current market price of high-density products is 2,000-3,000 yuan per ton higher than that of ordinary lithium iron phosphate. Institutions predict that in 2026, high-density lithium iron phosphate will account for 25% or even more of the total lithium battery market, and the market share of high-end lithium battery materials will experience rapid expansion.

In terms of negative electrode materials, silicon-carbon negative electrodes, as the next-generation technology upgrade direction, have systematically broken through the performance ceiling of traditional graphite negative electrodes through the design of a silicon-carbon composite structure. Currently, silicon-carbon negative electrodes have rapidly penetrated from the early small-scale applications in electric tools and consumer electronics to high-end power batteries and energy storage scenarios. Industry analysis indicates that with the continuous release of production capacity and the maturation of processes, the cost gap between it and traditional graphite negative electrodes will gradually narrow, and it is expected to become one of the mainstream technologies for next-generation lithium battery negative electrodes.

Other material technologies are also accelerating iteration. Composite current collectors, as one of the core key materials of new batteries, achieve breakthroughs in battery safety performance through a "metal-hybrid-metal" sandwich structure, which can suppress the risk of thermal runaway caused by punctures from the material source and also has the advantages of lightweighting, high energy density, and cost-effectiveness. With its outstanding performance advantages, composite current collectors are expected to replace traditional current collectors more frequently in the future.

In addition, the industrialization processes of high-voltage and large-capacity positive electrode materials, high-ion conductivity solid electrolytes, and other directions are continuously accelerating. The technological innovation across the entire industry is blooming in multiple points. The future technological competition in the lithium battery materials field will shift from single performance comparison to a comprehensive competition in terms of safety, energy density, cost, and cycle life, to support the entire battery industry to move towards a higher-quality development stage.